The marine heatwave bulletin provides forecasts and analysis of marine heatwave events across the globe and throughout the year. Used datasets include observations (satellite sea surface temperature maps) and numerical model analyses (assimilating satellite and in situ observations) to derive marine heatwave forecasts for a 10-day period. [1] This week’s forecasts were produced using as a comparison the marine heatwave situation on 14/01/2024.
Forecasts for 25 January
Southern Ocean
The marine heatwave present between 15° and 120°E will increase in intensity, with more strong and severe categories, and locally extreme.
Indian Ocean
The marine heatwave in northwestern Australia and in the Bay of Bengal will diminish in both intensity and extent with only few moderate categories remaining. The marine heatwave around Madagascar is also decreasing in extent but moderate to strong categories will remain. Between the African coasts and Madagascar, the marine heatwave will disapear.
South Pacific Ocean
Off the coast of New Zealand at 150°W, the marine heatwave is decreasing in intensity with now mainly moderate categories. The marine heatwave off the Chilean coast is overall stable.
North Atlantic Ocean – Caribean Sea
The on-going marine heatwave all over the basin will decrease slightly in intensity but will remain important with moderate and strong categories, as well as locally severe.
European Zone
Mediterranean Sea
The marine heatwave is intensifying in the eastern part of the basin, with a larger surface area of the strong category.
Weekly Temperature Anomalies
19/01 – 25/01/2025
Mean sea surface temperature anomalies in each global ocean region for the week 19 to 25 Janvier 2025.
| Mediterranean Sea | 0.5°C to 2.5°C |
| South Pacific Ocean | -2°C to 3°C |
| Southern Ocean | -1°C to 2°C |
| Indian Ocean | -1°C à 3°C |
| Southeast Asia Sea | 0.5°C à 1.5°C |
Access the Daily Global Physical Bulletin for a 9-day forecast here.
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What are marine heatwaves?
Marine heatwaves (MHW) are extreme rises in ocean temperature for an extended period of time. They can occur at different locations in the ocean, and their magnitude and frequency have increased over the last couple of decades, with harmful impacts on ecosystems, and human activities. According to the latest report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6 SYR), it is found with high confidence that in the near-term at 1.5°C global warming, the increasing frequency of marine heatwaves will increase risks of biodiversity loss in the oceans, including from mass mortality events.[2]
How are marine heatwaves calculated?
A marine heatwave is an episode during which the ocean temperature is abnormally warm for at least 5 consecutive days.
Adapted from Hobday et al. (2018)
For any location in the ocean, the normal temperatures are defined for every day of the year using a climatological period (here 1993–2016). A heatwave is identified when the measured daily temperature is within the top 10% of the highest recorded values for that day (i.e., above the 90th percentile, see diagram), and with this condition persisting for at least five consecutive days.
The intensity of the heatwave on any given day is measured as the number of degrees above the climatological average (represented by the bold black line) indicated by the blue arrow. We can either calculate the cumulative intensity over the entire heatwave or record the maximum intensity.
Heatwaves are classified based on their intensity level. To do this, the intensity is compared to the difference between the climatological value and the 90th percentile value. A mhw intensity between 1 and 2 times this difference corresponds to a heatwave of moderate category; between 2 and 3 times, to a strong category; between 3 and 4 times, to a severe category; and a difference greater than 4 times corresponds to an extreme category.
[1] Analysis of datasets: SST OSTIA (Copernicus Marine Service), OISST (NOAA), GLO12 (Copernicus Marine Service / Mercator Ocean International), PSY4 (Copernicus Marine Service / Mercator Ocean International), and GLO12 et PSY4 forecasts.
[2] IPCC AR6 SYR chapter 4.3 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf